A rather positive assessment for SCPIs in 2020
A still positive inflow, investments that remain sustained, and comfortable returns: the SCPIs sign a rather exceptional 2020 vintage, given the health and economic context. Which is far from being the case for all long-term investments. Explanations.
As we know, the past year has not been favorable to long-term investments. The sums saved by the French during the periods of confinement have indeed massively gone towards the most liquid supports. At the forefront of which the Livret A, with net inflows, at the end of November, of €27.23 billion. Conversely, life insurance, like many other longer-term investment formulas, which had attracted €23.3 billion in net capital over the first eleven months of 2019, is in outflows in 2020. From -€7.3 billion at the end of November. SCPIs, on the other hand, are faring much better.
A collection that remains positive
At the end of the 3e quarter, they posted net inflows of more than €4.4 billion, according to ASPIM-IEIF data. This is, of course, less than in 2019, when these real estate funds raised more than €6 billion over the same period. But the trend remains positive. And is an exception. This flow of new subscriptions will also have had two beneficial effects. He will have ensured the perfect liquidity of the market for SCPI shares. It will also have enabled these real estate funds to continue to invest. Admittedly, here again, less than in 2019, but without really being able to speak of a halt.
SCPIs continue to invest
These investments, which amounted to €17.7 billion at the end of September, are also a guarantee of the future profitability of SCPIs. Who have also invested in 3e quarter of 2020 (around €2.5 billion) more than they collected during the same quarter (€1 billion). A sign that the managers of these funds believe in the potential of their underlying real estate markets. The latter are today, in part, subject to downward pressure. They therefore conceal, for seasoned professionals, opportunities that they intend to take advantage of. To generate capital gains and future returns… In 2020, the profitability of SCPIs also remained at the top of the range.
Yields a priori still around 4%
Most market watchers believe it should be around 4%. A rate which, although lower than that of 2019 (4.4%), remains much higher than those delivered by other long-term investments. This expected average rate also hides strong disparities. Some SCPIs, positioned in sectors very affected by the health crisis and its economic consequences (tourism, shops, etc.), have drastically revised their distribution prospects in 2020. Others, whose assets are more widely spread over several types of active, have held up better. Some of them will also show yields even higher than 5%. Finally, the resilience of SCPIs in terms of valuation seems, for the time being, to be there. With a few exceptions, the value of their shares should not be revised downwards at the end of 2020. Which, again, will not be the case for many long-term investments…